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Global finance is currently being hit by concerns regarding the potential for stagflation that could be experienced by the world's two economic giants, China and the United States. The term stagflation itself is a contradictory condition where economic growth weakens but on the other hand the inflation rate jumps high.
This condition is rare. The reason is that for some reasons, inflation can also be considered as a signal that the economy is moving, the economy is growing.
But of course, that view can be applied if the inflation rate moves stable and remains under the supervision of the relevant regulator. Stagflation is a condition of very high and prolonged inflation marked by a stagnation of the economy.
This condition is thought to have occurred in the 1970s when there was an oil crisis that eventually made the prices of goods skyrocket, while on the other hand economic growth collapsed.
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Potential Stagflation in China
China is currently facing the risk of stagflation. From the economic data released a few days ago, several indicators point to stagflation conditions. China's National Bureau of Statistics released China's Producer Price Index (PPI) last October reaching 13.5%, which is also the highest inflation record in 26 years from the producer side.
Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures retail inflation, increased 1.5% annually.
Several analysts said that the increase in the Producer Price Index was due to a combination of global factors due to the tight supply of energy and key domestic raw materials.
As is known, China is currently facing an energy crisis and winter. This makes China have to import coal from other countries to keep its operations running properly.
As a result, world coal prices continue to soar to higher levels. Indonesia and several other coal-producing countries, of course, get a positive sentiment that will be reflected in the export balance.
On the other hand, China's economic growth only reached 4.9% in the third quarter of this year. It has fallen considerably compared to the economic growth in the previous quarter which reached 7.9% on an annual basis.
Potential Stagflation in America
Uncle Sam's country is also facing the same “ghost”, namely stagflation. Last month, the inflation rate in the United States (US) reached 6.2% and became the highest inflation rate in 30 years.
The Department of Labor in the United States (US) noted that the price of fuel oil in October rose 12.3%, followed by food prices and also the cost of housing.
On the other hand, the US is also currently accelerating economic recovery amid the Covid-19 pandemic. This raises concerns for market participants to view future economic conditions.
The United States and China are known to be two countries that have contributed greatly to the economy of many countries. Such as China, which is known as the "factory" of the world, where there are many industries from all sectors that place their operating units there, and the United States whose economic policies can affect global market conditions.
However, some analysts are optimistic that the impact of stagflation will not have too much impact on domestic economic conditions.
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